81st Annual Oscars—Predictions! (2008)

We’re only two days away from the 81st annual Academy Awards. I’m mildly excited for the show. The best actor battle between Mickey Rourke and Seann Penn is rather intriguing, and Hugh Jackman’s musical talent should be fun to watch as he hosts—he’s rumored to have a musical number with Beyonce and Zach Efron? Let’s hope they perform some version of “Single Ladies." While the Academy usually disagrees with my favorites, the Oscars are still stimulating for anyone who loves movies. I’m  hoping for a lot of upsets this year. Here are my official Oscar picks for every category, minus the short films:

Actor In A Leading Role
Should win: Sean Penn, Milk
Will win: Sean Penn, Milk
The Final Word: In, without a doubt, the most intense race, Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) is getting a late push by the media. They note that his personal struggle, coupled with his performance, should thrust him into the winner’s circle. I’m still going with Sean Penn. I’ve seen both films, and Penn’s performance is more memorable, more daring. Penn won the Screen Actor’s Guild, which is usually a pretty good indicator—then again, Mickey Rourke won the BAFTA award and the Golden Globe, so we’ll see.

Actor In A Supporting Role
Should win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Will win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The Final Word: How could it go to anyone else? This one is pretty much a landslide, the only questions: who will accept, and what will they say? This is the least competitive race, aside from "Best Animated Feature," which is sure to go to WALL-E.

Actress In A Leading Role
Should win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Will win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
The Final Word: I still think Winslet’s performance could’ve fit into the “Supporting Actress” arena, but I don’t see the Academy ignoring her this year. There’s an outside chance that Meryl Streep could pull a stunner. The Oscars appreciate Ol’ Meryl—she’s won twice before.

Actress In A Supporting Role
Should win: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Will win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Final Word: This one is a little tricky because most of the precursor awards (including the Screen Actors Guild) gave this to Kate Winslet, who, see above, is now in the “Leading Actress” category. I think Taraji P. Henson gave phenomenal, breakout performance, and Penelope Cruz’s didn’t hit me in any Oscar-winning way; however, I saw Vicky Cristina Barcelona long before Oscar buzz starts to build. Cruz will probably win, seeing as BAFTA, the National Board of Review, and the New York Film Critics Circle have recognized her in this category.

Animated Feature Film
Should win: WALL-E
Will win: WALL-E
The Final Word: When an animated feature gets this close to a “Best Picture” nomination (it won “Best Picture” over Slumdog and company at the Chicago Film Critics Association Awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards, and the Boston Society of Film Critics Awards), an Oscar for "Animated Feature Film" is pretty much guaranteed.

Art Direction
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Donald Graham Burt; Victor J. Zolfo)
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Donald Graham Burt; Victor J. Zolfo)
The Final Word: Revolutionary Road is certainly deserving of consideration. It, along with The Dark Knight, had precise artistic execution, but no set design and lighting captured the mood and poetry of a film the way The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button’s managed to do.

Cinematography
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Claudio Miranda)
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire (Anthony Dod Mantle)
The Final Word: First off, let me say what a crime it is that Roger Deakins was nominated for The Reader rather than Revolutionary Road. Slumdog will probably ride the coattails of its predicted “Best Picture” and “Best Director” wins, but every single frame in Ben Button looked like a canvas painting.

Costume Design
Should win: Australia (Catherine Martin)
Will win: The Duchess (Michael O’Connor)
The Final Word: Notice that both of the films above didn’t receive the highest praises from critics. The Academy will probably go with the tight, strict costuming of a colonial period piece instead of the colorful, creative costuming of an epic fairy-tale. Just a guess. The Duchess also received a win from the Costume Designers Guild, enhancing its chances.

Directing
Should win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Will win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
The Final Word: People are overlooking the fact that Slumdog Millionaire had a co-director from India, Loveleen Tandan. Slumdog is fresh and hip, really revolutionizing the way a story is told. David Fincher filled his film with some of the most beautiful imagery of the decade. So, while I agree that the directing jobs in Slumdog and Button are both artistic and technical achievements, I think Fincher should win because Fox Searchlight is keeping Loveleen’s directing role hush hush. That won’t stop Danny Boyle from winning the Oscar, and good for him—he should already have one under his belt for Trainspotting.

Documentary (Feature)
Should win: Man On Wire
Will win: Man On Wire
The Final Word: This is also a snoozer of a category. Man On Wire wins it hands down. The storytelling and aspect of human’s capacity for greatness are sure to lure the Academy in—it lured me in.

Film Editing
Should win: Slumdog Millionaire (Chris Dickens)
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire (Chris Dickens)
The Final Word: Slumdog features incredibly tight, concise editing for such a fast moving (and spirited) film. The way that subtitles are used is another triumph, although I’m not sure if that is considered to be "editing." Either way, it’s incredibly clear that the varying frame rates and cuts of Slumdog Millionaire standout as the years best.

Foreign Language Film
Should win: Waltz With Bashir
Will win: Waltz With Bashir
The Final Word: Google Waltz With Bashir if you haven’t heard of it. You’ll immediately understand the deep originality that runs through it. Undertaking a film like this—one with relevant, telling issues—and conveying it through such an aesthetically innovative medium shouldn’t and can’t be ignored by the Academy.

Makeup
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Greg Cannom)
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Greg Cannom)
The Final Word: The process of making characters age forwards and backwords throughout an entire lifetime is quite a task. I expect the Academy to recognize this. The Dark Knight sure revolutionized the Joker, but he’s a substantially simpler job to envision, and I just don’t see Hellboy II: The Golden Army winning an Oscar.

Music (Score)
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Alexandre Desplat)
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Alexandre Desplat)
The Final Word: Ok, time for my passion to shine through. This is the one category where I’m letting my “should win” to spill into my “will win”. Alexandre Desplat’s score is my favorite of the year. It’s beautiful in everyway: in its subtlety, its orchestration, and its raw emotion. I’m going to go out on a limb and desperately hope for Desplat to be recognized. I loved his work in The Painted Veil as well, and, even though he won the Golden Globe for “Best Score”, he wasn’t even nominated for it. The Academy owes him one, so maybe some magic will happen. The International Film Music Critics recently named it “Best Score," so we’ll see. Realistically, look for A.R. Rahman to win for Slumdog Millionaire, but what fun is predicting if you don’t have something to root for?

Music (Song)
Should win: Wall-E (‘Down to Earth’)
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire (‘Jai Ho’)
The Final Word: This is a toss up. Both songs are delightful. I’d like to see the Peter Gabriel-Thomas Newman collaboration win, but look for ‘Jai Ho’—that catchy song-and-dance number at the end of Slumdog Millionaire—to take home the award.

Sound Editing
Should win: The Dark Knight (Richard King)
Will win: The Dark Knight (Richard King)
The Final Word: Now we get to sound. The Dark Knight better take home both of these. It should be in the running for more, but it’ll have to settle for 2 or 3 technical accolades. If Slumdog Millionaire takes these two categories, it could potentially garner 8 wins—way too many for a film that probably won’t stand the test of time (see more about that at the “Best Picture” final word). More on The Dark Knight’s sound below.

Sound Mixing
Should win: The Dark Knight (Lora Hirschberg; Gary Rizzo; Ed Novick)
Will win: The Dark Knight (Lora Hirschberg; Gary Rizzo; Ed Novick)
The Final Word: As stated above, Christopher Nolan’s film featured superb sound. I saw the movie in IMAX 3D and the sound was unlike anything I had ever heard before—Earth shattering when it needed to be and suspensfully subtle when it needed to be.

Visual Effects
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Barba; Steve Preeg; Burt Dalton; Craig Barron)
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Barba; Steve Preeg; Burt Dalton; Craig Barron)
The Final Word: Even those who hated what Benjamin Button stood for recognized the awe-inspiring visual effects that helped age Brad Pitt throughout an entire lifetime…backwards, as well as other characters forwards. I’m pretty sure about this category—even if they didn’t recognize Button as thoroughly as I expect, The Dark Knight and Iron Man will likely cancel each other out.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Should win: Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)
The Final Word: The film that wins “Best Picture” is usually a good bet for some kind of writing award. I expect that trend to follow. It’s a screenplay that inspires without ever becoming cheesy or melodramatic—as most coming-of-age, feel-good movies tend to do. Slumdog’s script is much deserving.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Should win: WALL-E (Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon)
Will win: Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
The Final Word: This is another interesting category, with all of the 5 nominated films locked in battle: WALL-E, Milk, Frozen River, Happy-Go-Lucky, and In Bruges. WALL-E and Milk seem to be the frontrunners, but don’t count out any of these films. Although a probable win for Milk feels fitting, I’d like to see Pixar’s film get a little more recognition.

Best Picture
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
The Final Word: Slumdog Millionaire has this in the bag, but here goes my argument. Slumdog Millionaire is a marvelous film, but it’s a film of the moment. It’s the feel-good movie that we so desperately need right now—in this “Great Recession” that we’re in. This movie will be recycled through our pop-culture for a decade and rightfully so, but ultimately it will be forgotten. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button isn’t so crowd-pleasing in that it’s a delicate reflection of life’s realities—death being one of them. It’s a long film, and in today’s culture, a quiet film—one without wars and action pieces—that runs over 2 hours is labeled “boring”, or “a snooze fest.” If I were to look into the future, say 40 years from now, I bet more people would recognize The Curious Case of Benjamin Button than they would Slumdog Millionaire—not saying that a lot of people would necessarily recognize either one of them. So the question the Academy needs to ask themselves is this: Is the Academy Awards a means of rewarding the most aesthetically timeless film (one that may become a classic) or the film most people are wrapped up in at the moment. 2008 wasn’t the most memorable year in film, so the movie that does win “Best Picture”—be it Button or Slumdog—will likely go on to capture 8 or 9.  While 8 Oscars may be a bit much for Benjamin Button, it would be more of a reflection of 2008 than of the film itself. That being said, I find it easier to give Benjamin Button 8 Oscars than to give the same amount to Slumdog Millionaire. That would throw it into the arena with Gone With The Wind, On The Waterfront, and Amadeus—and above Schindler’s List and Lawrence of Arabia.  Is Slumdog Millionaire as good as those films? My answer is no. In fact, I don’t believe either of this years top contenders are as timeless as the films listed above, but I think Benjamin Button at least has a chance of becoming a piece of art cinema years down the road because of its always-relevant message and the intricate beauty of its images. I’d like to point out that the Oscar system has been pretty inconsistent over the years, Heard of Citizen Kane? It received 1 Oscar, not for “Best Picture.” Heard of Shakespeare In Love? It received 7 Oscars, including “Best Picture.” Point proven. So, what I have to say is, if the Oscars are meant to honor the most celebrated film of the year, then by all means give it to Slumdog Millionaire, but if its purpose is to memorialize a film as a piece of cinema history, I’d give it to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Note: Much of this is irrelevant since I’m sitting here at Michigan State University, far away from Hollywood.

How it should be:
8 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3 The Dark Knight
3 WALL-E
2 Slumdog Millionaire
1 Milk
1 Australia
1 Man On Wire
1 The Reader
1 Waltz With Bashir

How it will be (my official predictions):
6 Slumdog Millionaire
4 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3 The Dark Knight
2 Milk
1 Man On Wire
1 The Duchess
1 The Reader
1 Vicky Cristina Barcelona
1 WALL-E
1 Waltz With Bashir

Footnote: I'm predicting the Academy will get it right 66% of the time (14/21). I feel like I'm going to be let down. I don’t expect to do that well come Oscar night—I’m not good at fully displacing my emotions from my predictions. Ah well. Catch the Oscars Sunday, February 22nd at 8:00 PM EST on ABC.

Update: The Academy got it right 52% of the time. Foiled again. However, I did a good job on my actual predictions: 86%.